กกร. คาด GDP ไทยปี 68 โต 2.4-2.9%Joint Business Committee Forecasts Thailand's GDP Growth of 2.4-2.9% in 2025

On Wednesday, January 8, 2025, Mr. Sanan Angubolkul, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, presided over the meeting of the Joint Private Sector Committee of the three institutions (JBC). The meeting was attended by Mr. Tawee Piyapathana, Senior Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and Mr. Kob Sak Duangdee, a representative of the Thai Banking Association, who participated in the press conference.

In 2025, the global economy is expected to grow at around 3% amidst policy uncertainties. The growth rate for the global economy in 2025 is projected to be similar to that of 2024, supported by advancements in technology and a more accommodative monetary policy in the past. However, trade barriers, particularly the increase of tariffs imposed by the United States on China up to 60% and on other countries by approximately 10-20%, alongside retaliatory measures from trade partner countries, pose significant risks to the global economy, especially in the latter half of 2025 onwards, which is expected to mark the onset of these measures. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts may lead to higher energy prices in the global market, alongside market volatility due to uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy.

The Thai economy in 2025 is projected to expand by 2.4-2.9%, while exports are expected to grow by 1.5-2.5%, which is lower than in 2024. The inflation rate is anticipated to remain low at 0.8-1.2%. The Thai economy continues to rely on the tourism sector as its main engine, with the number of foreign tourists increasing to 39 million. This growth is supported by government measures gradually implemented during the first half of the year, including the Phase 2 and Phase 3 economic stimulus plans and the Easy E-Receipt measure. Nonetheless, Thailand's GDP growth continues to fall below potential due to structural issues, such as high household debt reaching 104% of GDP when including informal debt, the informal economy comprising nearly half of GDP, and SMEs lacking the capacity for adaptation and competitiveness to respond to competition from both domestic and export markets. Hence, it is essential to focus on restructuring the Thai economy, such as transitioning the economy into the formal sector, enhancing the competitiveness of entrepreneurs to keep pace with global trends, reducing business obstacles, attracting foreign investment, systematically addressing household debt issues, and equipping SMEs to adapt effectively.

Economic projections for 2025 by the JBC:
(as of December 2024) 2024
GDP 2.8
Exports 4.0
Inflation 0.4*

(as of January 2025) 2025
GDP 2.4 to 2.9
Exports 1.5 to 2.5
Inflation 0.8 to 1.2

Note: *Actual figure

The JBC meeting recognized that the economy in the first half of the year maintains momentum and can grow well due to government measures being gradually implemented during the year’s first half. Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, close cooperation between the government and the private sector is necessary to drive economic growth to cope with further economic volatility, including systematic measures to enhance household income and safety nets, aligned with the “You Fight, We Help” initiative, which will assist in enhancing debt repayment capabilities sustainably.

Informal debt in Thailand is a significant and complex issue. A survey by the Economics Department of Chulalongkorn University found that the average informal debt per household is approximately 98,538 baht, or about 13% of GDP, leading to an overall household debt level of 104% of GDP. Approximately 40% of households with informal debt serve as both creditors and debtors within the same network, potentially leading to a chain reaction affecting the overall economy. Informal debt also plays a critical role as a source of emergency funds for daily living, business operations, and managing immediate financial issues. Furthermore, 30% of households with income from the formal economy still depend on informal debt. Therefore, addressing this issue appropriately is necessary, focusing on the use of digital technology, such as creating debtor databases, to improve access to formal financial sources and ensure transparency in long-term issues, ultimately enhancing the quality of life for citizens and establishing long-term economic stability.

The JBC expressed concern about the global trade trends expected to fluctuate due to trade policies from major economies, which may lead to an influx of goods from abroad. Thus, it is essential for the government to accelerate the use of other measures under the Act on Anti-Dumping and Subsidization of Imported Goods B.E. 2542 (1999) and the Act on Safeguard Measures for Increased Imports B.E. 2550 (2007), including Countervailing Duties (CVD), anti-circumvention measures, and Safeguard Measures (SG) to ensure effective protection for domestic operators that aligns with the circumstances. Additionally, it should consider reducing the investigation timeframe, simplifying procedures, and emphasizing the government's role in representing the private sector to facilitate faster responses to anti-dumping measures under the principles of promoting free and fair trade for all parties involved.