ดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ ปรับตัวลดลงต่อเนื่อง เสนอรัฐเข้มงวดตรวจสอบสินค้าสวมสิทธิ์Industry Confidence Index Continues to Decline; Urges Government to Intensify Inspection of Misused Goods

On May 19, 2025, Mr. Apichit Prasoprat, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with Mr. Pipob Chokwatthanakorn, Executive Director of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Division, jointly announced the results of the industrial confidence index survey for April 2025, which stood at 89.9, a decrease from 91.8 in March 2025. This decline resulted from a slowdown in industrial production due to the long holiday during the Songkran Festival, compounded by the United States' import tax measures affecting exports, as well as earthquakes leading to a delay in decisions to purchase vertical real estate, adversely impacting confidence in the real estate sector. Additionally, the increase in imported goods from China and problems related to the misappropriation of Thai goods' origin are on the rise.

Mr. Apichit Prasoprat, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), together with Mr. Pipob Chokwatthanakorn, Executive Director of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Division, jointly revealed that the industrial confidence index for April 2025 is at 89.9, down from 91.8 in March 2025. This is attributed to the slowdown in industrial production due to the long holiday during the Songkran Festival, which resulted in fewer working days. Additionally, the United States' import tax measures have impacted exports, such as a sectoral tariff of 25% on automotive parts, steel, and aluminum, as well as anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) of 375% on solar panel products (issued on April 21, 2025). Furthermore, the earthquake resulted in postponed decisions to purchase vertical real estate, impacting confidence in the real estate sector. The trend of increasing imported goods from China and issues surrounding the misappropriation of Thai goods' origin are reflected in the value of goods imported from China, which increased by 20.07% YoY (during January - March 2025), affecting domestic production. Another factor contributing to the decline in the industrial confidence index this month is the expected reduction in automobile exports, which fell by -9.36% (YoY) in March 2025 due to increased automobile tariffs.

However, in April, there remained positive factors due to the delay in enforcing the Reciprocal Tariff for 90 days (ending in early July 2025), while maintaining a Baseline Tariff of 10% on imports from all countries. This has led to an acceleration of imports of certain products from the United States to prevent disruptions in the supply chain. The increase in foreign tourists, attributed to the Maha Songkran World Water Festival 2025, saw 666,180 tourists entering Thailand from April 6-12, 2025, a rise of 10.73% from the previous week, supporting domestic expenditure and tourism revenue. Additionally, measures to aid earthquake victims (with a subsidy of up to 49,500 baht per household) and the reduction of transfer registration fees to 0.01% (starting from April 22, 2025) have positively impacted the construction materials cluster from spending on repairs to damaged buildings, helping to maintain the level of economic activity in the real estate and related sectors.
According to a survey of 1,359 operators across 47 industrial groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in April 2025, it was found that factors of concern for operators have increased, including domestic economy (58.4%), global economy (58.0%), and political situation (44.0%). Exchange rate (from the exporters' perspective) was at 36.2%, while concerns that decreased included oil prices (25.0%) and lending interest rates (14.9%).

Meanwhile, the index forecast for the next three months also declined to 93.3, down from 95.7 in March 2025, as operators remain worried about uncertainties stemming from international trade policies and a slowdown in the global economy, leading to ongoing contraction in the industrial manufacturing sector. Investors may delay investments, especially in industrial manufacturing. The risk stemming from the U.S. economy, which is showing signs of slowing down, is reflected in the U.S. GDP figure for Q1 at -0.3%, and fluctuating weather adversely affects flooding problems in some areas, particularly in the southern region.
However, there are still supportive factors expected from a reduction in the policy interest rate by 0.25% to 1.75% per year, which helps reduce financial costs for operators and increases cash flow for businesses.

Recommendations to the government  
1. Recommend that the government intensify inspections of goods from abroad that are misused to export through Thailand, such as issuing certificates of origin (C/O), checking production processes, and imported/exported finished goods under the same customs duty classification, as well as monitoring the trading behavior of operators exporting to the United States.

2. Recommend the establishment of a comprehensive marketing and export consulting center at the regional level to assist SMEs in accessing markets, including promoting the use of domestic raw materials (Local content)  

3. Support the government in negotiating free trade agreements (FTA) according to plans to open up high-level product trade and investment markets, such as Thailand-European Union (EU), Thailand-Korea (KTEPA), Thailand-United Arab Emirates (CEPA), and ASEAN-Canada (ACAFTA).

The FTI has compiled survey data on the industrial confidence index and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years to create a Dashboard published on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) to facilitate access to valuable information for business operations by operators and the general public, which can be accessed at https://fti.or.th/ids 
The FTI aims to “Strengthen Thai Industries for a Stronger Thailand.”

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Published by the Corporate Communications Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Data prepared by the Economic and Academic Division, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)