กกร. ห่วงเศรษฐกิจโตต่ำ-เสี่ยงถูกลดเครดิต วอนรัฐเร่งสร้างเสถียรภาพJCC Warns of Low Economic Growth and Credit Rating Risks, Urges Government to Stabilize

On Wednesday, September 3, 2025, Mr. Payong Srivanit, Chairman of the Thai Bankers Association, presided over a meeting of the Joint Committee of the Three Private Sectors (JCC), alongside Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and Dr. Poj Aramwattananont, Chairman of the Thailand Chamber of Commerce, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center.

JCC anticipates that Thailand's GDP for the year 2025 will grow by 1.8-2.2%, with the economy likely expanding by only about 1% in the second half of the year. Economic pressures are increasing due to political uncertainties, which may affect budget disbursement and the lack of confidence in private sector investment decisions moving forward. There is also a risk that the country could face an upward credit rating adjustment.

JCC is concerned about the continuously strengthening Thai Baht, which is not in line with the slowing economic fundamentals but is correlated with the ongoing increase in gold prices. Currently, there is a lack of in-depth data to understand the impacts of gold and cryptocurrency transactions, as well as remittances from migrant workers that do not go through official channels, resulting in over half of the balance of payments being not clearly identifiable (Errors & Omissions). Relevant agencies should prioritize differentiating and analyzing the impacts of gold transactions on the real economy and consider structural improvements to achieve better balance, such as considering foreign investment mechanisms through a Sovereign Wealth Fund.

JCC's economic forecast framework for 2025:
As of January-April 2025
GDP 2.4 to 2.9
Exports 1.5 to 2.5
Inflation 0.8 to 1.2

As of May 2025
GDP 2.0 to 2.2
Exports 0.3 to 0.9
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of June 2025
GDP 1.5 to 2.0
Exports -0.5 to 0.9
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of July 2025
GDP 1.5 to 2.0
Exports -0.5 to 0.3
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of August 2025
GDP 1.8 to 2.2
Exports 2.0 to 3.0
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of September 2025
GDP 1.8 to 2.2
Exports 2.0 to 3.0
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

JCC believes that Thailand's economic recovery still faces challenges from external factors such as the global economic situation and trade wars, as well as internal factors like rising energy costs, minimum wage, and raw material prices, impacting businesses, especially SMEs, which are particularly vulnerable. Therefore, it proposes that the government consider reducing or relaxing land and buildings tax by no less than 50% in 2026 or until the economy recovers to alleviate cost burdens, enhance liquidity, reduce the risk of business closures, and stimulate the local economy. These measures will help mitigate negative impacts, restore confidence, and strengthen the overall Thai economy.

JCC opines that the government should place greater emphasis on paying wages based on skills (Pay by Skills), as per the announcement from the Labor Skill Development Promotion Committee, rather than solely focusing on increasing the minimum wage, while also emphasizing UP-Skill & Re-Skill, Multi-Skill, and New Skill initiatives to cultivate a skilled workforce that aligns with labor market demands and to improve labor productivity, thereby reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness.

Following discussions between JCC and the Bank of Thailand (BoT), the National Economic and Social Development Office (NESDB), and the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) in early July 2025, recognizing the impact of U.S. trade policies exacerbating domestic structural problems, including: 1) existing vulnerabilities such as inequality, household debt issues, and a large informal economy; 2) the lack of competitiveness in the new world and insufficient investment in productivity development, while the workforce lacks essential skills; and 3) challenges in the public sector stemming from the rapidly changing global dynamics and the discontinuity and disconnection of public policies, which have continuously hindered Thailand's growth potential for a long time, it was jointly acknowledged to create a framework for restoring confidence and driving Thailand's economy forward.

This collaboration led to the development of the Reinvent Thailand platform – A Platform for Sustainable Policy Execution, a collaborative space for building a sustainable future for Thailand that focuses on implementing feasible policies, creating new dynamics for long-term economic growth. Reinvent Thailand will be published on the websites of all allied organizations, providing a space for all sectors to participate in offering guidelines and creating alliances for the restructuring of the country's economy. The private sector will play a key role in driving these initiatives, relying on support from the government to create a conducive environment that promotes adaptation and prioritization. This platform is not merely a request for assistance from the government but emphasizes mutual accountability in implementation, creating participatory spaces in policy design, filtering guidelines, guiding operations, and continuously monitoring and evaluating results (Result Oriented), with a focus on data-driven approaches to effectively address issues sustainably and enhance competitive potential.

Reinvent Thailand marks the beginning of a serious transformation process, with immediate coordination to push for two urgent policies that can yield real results: 1) Addressing household debt issues by integrating the entire system, linking data to enhance access to credit in the system and reducing reliance on informal debt, and 2) Increasing the competitiveness of the private sector by linking across the supply chain, focusing on investing in technology, upgrading labor skills, and production processes with Thai personnel, while creating competitive environmental standards at the international level, supported by state incentives such as public procurement to create markets.

These two policies are merely examples of a new way of thinking that requires cooperation from all sectors, and the collaboration will expand to other relevant agencies in the future. The approach laid out under this platform emphasizes policy efficiency and continuity, serving as a “compass” for all governments in formulating economic policies that enhance the competitiveness of the business sector, increase skills, create employment, income opportunities, and elevate the quality of life for all Thai citizens in a concrete and measurable manner.