ดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ ร่วงต่อเนื่อง จับตา ‘คนละครึ่ง’ พยุงกำลังซื้อปลายปีIndustrial Confidence Index Continues to Decline, Monitoring ‘Khon La Khrueng’ to Support Purchasing Power at Year's End

Mr. Nawa Chantanasurakorn, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with Ms. Bunchusa Phutthaprommongkol,
an FTI Board Member and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Division of FTI, revealed the results of the industrial confidence index survey for August 2025, which stands at 86.4, down from 86.6 in July 2025. The decrease is attributed to multiple factors, including political uncertainty following the Constitutional Court's ruling that the Prime Minister's status has ended, as well as investment spending that remains below targets, especially when considering the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2025 (October 2024 – August 2025), which has seen delayed disbursement. Furthermore, uncertainties regarding U.S. tax rates, whether in relation to Regional Value Content (RVC) or goods that Thailand opens to the U.S., have impacted both exports and imports. Additionally, the situation of the Thai-Cambodian border closure continues to adversely affect cross-border trade, with an expected loss in trade value of over 14 billion THB in August when compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the recurring flooding caused by Tropical Storm ‘Kajiki’ has directly impacted trade and agriculture in the northern regions, along with the gradual return of Cambodian labor to their home country, leading to short-term labor shortages in labor-intensive industries.

Despite this, there are several positive factors in August, including the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to lower the policy interest rate by 0.25% per annum from 1.75% to 1.50% per annum, which helps alleviate financial burdens for operators. Additionally, the government has approved a budget to stimulate the economy with 18.5 billion THB, allocating 10 billion THB to a fund aimed at enhancing competitiveness. Simultaneously, domestic automobile sales are expected to grow, supported by the BIG Motor Sale 2025 event, especially in the electric vehicle segment.

A survey of 1,350 operators covering 47 industries under the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) for August 2025 revealed increasing concerns among operators regarding domestic economic conditions (72.6%), government policies (60.4%), and exchange rates (exporter perspectives) (45.7%). Conversely, concerns about global economic conditions (61.0%), access to credit (35.1%), energy prices (32.4%), and loan interest rates (26.1%) have decreased.

Meanwhile, the three-month forward index has also declined to 88.9, down from 89.2 in July 2025, due to worries over delays in forming a new government, which could affect the implementation of key policies such as tax negotiations with the U.S., border issues, and economic recovery. Demand from trading partner countries is expected to decrease following the enforcement of the Reciprocal Tariff measures, which impact Thai manufacturing and exports, along with the risk of a 40% tax due to ambiguities regarding transshipment conditions, particularly in the electrical appliance industry.

However, there are supportive factors expected to cushion the economic situation, including the ‘Khon La Khrueng’ project, anticipated to help reduce living costs, stimulate consumer purchasing power, and enhance the circulation of funds within the economy. The recovery of the tourism sector during the high season (November-December 2025) is expected to positively affect spending and consumption of goods.

Recommendations for the government
1. Recommend that the government expedite the finalization of conditions regarding the Reciprocal Tariff tax, particularly concerning the Regional Value Content (RVC) and the list of products that Thailand will open to the U.S., to prepare operators for mitigating impacts.
2. Urge the acceleration of disbursement of the investment budget remaining in fiscal year 2025 to inject investment funds into the economy, along with readiness for implementation of projects under the annual budget for fiscal year 2026.
3. Recommend that the government expedite tangible assistance measures for operators affected by the Thai-Cambodian border closure, such as allowing transport and logistics costs to be deducted twice as expenses in corporate income tax calculations.
4. Request the government to improve laws and regulations to support the use of waste materials and by-products in creating new value-added products according to the principles of Circular Economy.

Furthermore, FTI has compiled the results of the industrial confidence index survey and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years into a dashboard published on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website of FTI, facilitating access for operators and the public to useful information for business operations, accessible at https://fti.or.th/ids 
FTI aims “to strengthen Thai industries for a stronger Thailand.”

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Published by the Corporate Communications Department of the Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Compiled by the Economic and Academic Division of the Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)