กกร. ห่วงบาทแข็งฉุดส่งออก–ท่องเที่ยว จี้รัฐเร่งวิเคราะห์ธุรกรรมทอง–คริปโตJFCCT Expresses Concern Over Strengthening Baht Impacting Exports and Tourism – Urges Government to Accelerate Analysis of Gold and Crypto Transactions

On Wednesday, October 1, 2025, Dr. Phajan Aramwattananont, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, presided over the meeting of the Joint Private Sector Committee of three institutions (JFCCT) with Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and Mr. Phayong Sriwinit, President of the Thai Bankers' Association, attending the press conference at Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel.

The JFCCT expressed concern over the continuous strengthening of the baht, which has a direct impact on exports and the tourism sector. Additionally, this issue is closely linked to the rising gold prices. At the same time, there are limitations in obtaining detailed information about gold transactions, cryptocurrencies, and remittances from undocumented migrant workers, resulting in most balance of payments figures being classified under “Errors & Omissions” without clear differentiation.

The JFCCT proposed that relevant agencies collaborate to link data and expedite comprehensive analysis of the impacts of these transactions.

The JFCCT expresses gratitude to the government for prioritizing discussions with the private sector through meetings with the three institutions, namely the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries, and the Thai Bankers' Association in recent times, reflecting a genuine willingness to listen to feedback and work collaboratively. Many private sector proposals have already been incorporated into government policies, leading the JFCCT to hope that these policies will be actively pushed forward, producing tangible results to enhance confidence and drive the Thai economy steadily forward. Furthermore, the JFCCT reaffirms its readiness to fully support the government's work in the period leading up to the elections to ensure that economic measures remain uninterrupted and that the development of the country can continue sustainably. The JFCCT has proposed a blueprint draft for the “Reinvent Thailand” forum to provide a rapid and flexible working framework suited to the changing global context in the recovery and upgrading of the Thai economy moving forward.

The previously driving export sector that supported the global economy has begun to slow down. The global economy is expected to decelerate in the last quarter of this year and into the following year, with the OECD estimating global GDP growth for 2025 at 3.3%. However, negative factors such as tax increases impacting spending and employment will pressure global economic growth down to 2.9% in 2026. Exports to the U.S. are expected to contract, with the ASEAN region predicted to shrink by 9.7%, and Thailand expected to see a contraction of 12.7%, according to UNDP assessments, reflecting the vulnerability of global trade.

Amidst this situation, the baht continues to strengthen and has a close relationship with continually rising gold prices while lacking in-depth information to explain the impacts of gold transactions and cryptocurrencies, as well as remittances from undocumented migrant workers. This situation causes most balance of payments figures to be classified under “Errors & Omissions” without clear differentiation. Therefore, the JFCCT proposes that relevant agencies collaborate to connect data, quickly identify and analyze the impacts of these transactions on the real economy, while considering structural measures to achieve long-term balance. As the dollar is expected to weaken, establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund could serve as an additional mechanism to address the challenges posed by capital movements, moving beyond reliance on traditional products, thereby supporting and managing volatility systematically.

Regarding export figures, the JFCCT maintains its growth projection at 2–3%, with significant pressure stemming from the sharp appreciation of the baht in recent times, which has directly affected the competitiveness of Thai exporters and tourism. However, the private sector believes that if stability can be maintained and the baht can depreciate in the final quarter of the year, there will be increased opportunities for improved export figures as well as driving the new government's economic policies. Therefore, the JFCCT will closely monitor the situation and reassess export projections in the upcoming meeting next month.

Thailand must accelerate its efforts to enhance Regional Value Content (RVC) levels, as failure to maintain appropriate levels may jeopardize the competitiveness of Thai products in the U.S. market and affect approximately 400,000 workers involved. There is a pressing need to develop domestic raw materials usage and strengthen upstream industries. An appropriate RVC level is considered to be 40%, which will serve as an essential benchmark for Thai operators to compete confidently in the global market.

It is expected that Thailand's economy in 2025 may grow by 1.8%-2.2% in line with previous estimates. However, if budget disbursement for 2026 can be expedited to around one-third of the budget by the end of this year, attracting approximately 34 million international tourists, along with economic stimulus measures such as the “Half-half” plan, support for SMEs, and promoting Made In Thailand initiatives in accordance with the government’s Quick Big Win strategy will serve as significant support for the Thai economy in 2025, bringing growth closer to the previous year’s growth rate of 2.5%.

Economic projection framework for 2025 by the JFCCT
As of Jan-April 2025
GDP 2.4 to 2.9
Exports 1.5 to 2.5
Inflation 0.8 to 1.2

As of May 2025
GDP 2.0 to 2.2
Exports 0.3 to 0.9
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of June 2025
GDP 1.5 to 2.0
Exports -0.5 to 0.9
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of July 2025
GDP 1.5 to 2.0
Exports -0.5 to 0.3
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of August 2025
GDP 1.8 to 2.2
Exports 2.0 to 3.0
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of September 2025
GDP 1.8 to 2.2
Exports 2.0 to 3.0
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

    
As of October 2025
GDP 1.8 to 2.2
Exports 2.0 to 3.0
Inflation 0.5 to 1.0

Additionally, the JFCCT discussed some important issues including:
1) Following the Problem Statement of the “Reinvent Thailand” proposal, the JFCCT emphasizes the situation of corruption in Thailand, which remains at a critical level and poses major obstacles to economic development and creating confidence among both domestic and foreign investors. Survey results from the Economic and Business Forecasting Center of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce regarding the Thai Corruption Situation Index indicate that persistent policy corruption and local-level corruption continue to arise, whether it is transparency issues in large public budget projects, the solicitation of benefits in procurement or uneven law enforcement, which adversely impacts a large number of businesses still facing pressure to pay extra money to officials or those in political power to obtain rights or contracts through bureaucratic channels.

Therefore, the JFCCT has established a Zero Corruption Task Force to directly gather proposals from businesses and civil society, to develop them into systematic policy proposals to be presented to the government, ensuring that these measures are effectively implemented, restoring investor confidence, and creating a transparent, fair, and sustainable economic and political system in the long term. This task force consists of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries, and the Thai Bankers' Association, along with supporting partners such as the Anti-Corruption Organization of Thailand (ACT), the Thai Private Sector Consortium Against Corruption (CAC), and the Office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) with a focus on eight key areas: 1) Good Governance 2) Promoting Awareness 3) Anti-Corruption Policies 4) Risk Management Systems 5) Participation 6) Technology 7) Public Data Disclosure 8) Review of Laws and Regulations (Guillotine) that had been previously implemented, prioritizing issues that must be urgently addressed in the short, medium, and long term, which the task force will integrate serious cooperation to tangibly combat corruption.

Furthermore, the House of Representatives is currently considering the draft Labor Protection Act (No..), which the JFCCT has reviewed and raised concerns regarding certain provisions that may impact the overall economy and increase employment costs for employers. Additionally, the draft lacks systematic and holistic consultation with the private sector. Therefore, the JFCCT requests a review of the draft Labor Protection Act and requests private sector involvement as a committee in the consideration of this draft law to reflect opinions and perspectives on legal improvements to ensure fairness for both employers and employees while also preventing negative impacts on competitiveness and the overall Thai economy.