ส.อ.ท. เปิดเวที FTI Outlook 2026 “ถอดรหัสอุตสาหกรรมไทย อ่านเกมอนาคต”FTI Hosts FTI Outlook 2026: "Decoding Thailand’s Industry for the Upcoming Future"

On Wednesday, November 19, 2025, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) organized the annual academic seminar FTI Outlook 2026 under the theme “DECODING THAILAND’S INDUSTRY FOR THE UPCOMING FUTURE” as a platform to exchange in-depth insights and economic–industrial scenarios of Thailand for the year 2026. The event brought together experts, economists, and business leaders to decode the risk factors and opportunities while sharing perspectives on the global and Thai economic directions, along with industry-specific trends, to serve as crucial information for business planning and preparation for future challenges. The event was held at Auditorium, Building 3, PTT Headquarters.

The event was honored with the presence of Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, who delivered the opening speech and special lecture on the topic “Policy Vision for Thailand’s Economic Transformation.” Representatives from both the public and private sectors attended the event.

Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas stated, “The Thai economy today is facing a critical turning point. We have more constraints than ever before, including an aging society, labor shortages, global economic uncertainties, and long-standing structural bottlenecks. The latest economic data clearly reflects that Thailand can no longer rely on traditional growth models. Hence, we must act urgently, both to stabilize the short-term economy and to systematically reform the long-term economic structure.”

The government has decided to implement targeted short-term economic stimulus measures to sustain purchasing power and keep the economy moving. One of the most important measures is the initiative, which involves the government co-financing 50% to stimulate grassroots spending. The short-term results are already evident, with more than 913,000 participating shops and a spending of over 33.898 billion THB, circulating funds throughout local economies across the country.

Additionally, the government is accelerating public spending, particularly investment budgets, with disbursement reaching 12.7%, significantly surpassing the target of 8%. This indicates that the government is injecting new funds into the economy at a crucial time under constrained timelines. The principle is that "the government only has 4 months, of which 2 months are left, thus limiting the ability to achieve everything; if we continue to seek new models, we will not be timely—action must happen to signal change." Therefore, the government is pursuing two concurrent pathways: stabilizing the short-term economy to handle the situation while laying down a long-term foundation to transform the Thai economic model into a sustainable one, based on strict fiscal discipline and transparency.

The core focus going forward is ‘investment’ since long-term growth must begin with unlocking production potential, thus driving BOI FastPass and PPP Fast Track initiatives to resolve bottlenecks that have left investors waiting for over 470 billion THB. This approach prioritizes genuine investor pathways and leverages cooperation among agencies to yield tangible results without reliance on additional borrowing. This marks a significant starting point for a new economic model driven by high-quality investments, not merely by government budgets.

Moreover, the transition of the Thai economy cannot occur without upgrading the skills of the Thai workforce to meet the demands of modern industries. The government is collaborating with the private sector to revise the skill development system to become Demand Driven, allowing the private sector to reflect actual needs, followed by the government organizing directly responsive curricula in the modern automotive, electronics, clean energy, and digital technology sectors. The TH-AI Passport will also be promoted to enhance AI capabilities among a wide spectrum of Thai people, leading to a qualified workforce ready to accommodate the new investment era.

On another front, SMEs constitute an essential foundation of the Thai economy. Therefore, measures are being prepared to elevate them, including capital funding, adjustments to supply chain financing, and the development of entrepreneurial skills to effectively enter the digital economy. All these initiatives represent structural reforms to enable businesses at all levels to grow alongside the transitions of major economies.

To ensure the effectiveness of SME uplift programs, the government has expanded the Upskill initiative to cover participating stores under the " 0, 0 " program, offering skill development projects for up to 400,000 stores starting today, November 19, 2025, to December 19, 2025. This includes participation in Food Delivery platforms or online courses provided by the Government Savings Bank and the Department of Business Development, with stores meeting the success criteria receiving a state subsidy of 20% of the government-supported sales, capped at 2,000 THB. Results will be announced via the 'Digital Wallet' app, and this measure aims to help small retail stores transition into the digital economy, increase actual sales, and prepare to grow alongside future business opportunities.

Today, both the government and the industrial sector play vital roles that must work together. The government will remove barriers, maintain stability, and create favorable competition rules, while the business sector is a key force in creating innovation, production, and new investments. If we stand side by side, Thailand can overcome its traditional limitations and reach higher grounds. In the near future, Thailand will not only serve as a manufacturing base but will become a center of modern industries in the region, excelling in digital technology, electronics, clean energy, modern automotive, and future foods, ultimately passing on a robust, sustainable, and competitive economy to future generations of Thais.

Mr. Kriangkrai Thiennukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), stated that the global economy is currently facing rapid changes due to technological advancements impacting businesses, pressures from trade wars, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and climate change, which are significant challenges that all countries, including Thailand, must confront. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global GDP for 2025 is projected to expand by 3.2%, while in 2026, it will slow down to 3.1%, still below the 10-year average of 3.7%, indicating a slower-than-expected global economic recovery.

Additionally, the Thai economy continues to face structural issues and risks from various factors reflected through indicators such as the Industrial Confidence Index (TISI) prepared by FTI, which shows that confidence levels have not returned above the neutral mark of 100 for the past 13 years, reflecting the concerns of over 16,000 FTI members regarding the economic conditions of the past. Numerous factors pressuring the Thai economy include unclear U.S. tax policies, the influx of cheap goods, a strengthening Thai baht, production costs exceeding regional competitors, and household debt burdens affecting domestic purchasing power.

Meanwhile, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) estimates that Thailand’s GDP for 2025 will expand within the range of 1.8 - 2.2%. Although exports may grow by approximately 9.5%-10.5%, they largely comprise products with very low local content and gold, which does not generate additional value for the real economy. In conjunction with imports expanding by as much as 10.2%, GDP will continue to grow within limited constraints. Nevertheless, JSCCIB anticipates that the government’s Quick Big Win policy will significantly support the Thai economy, enabling GDP to grow beyond this year’s estimated range and help drive economic momentum in 2026.

The FTI, as the representative organization for the private manufacturing sector, recognizes the ongoing economic and industrial transformations. Therefore, it organized the annual FTI Outlook 2026 seminar to facilitate the exchange of vision among government executives, experts, and business leaders, aiming to present the economic and industrial scenarios of Thailand in 2026 while decoding the risk factors, opportunities, and important changes from the global and Thai economies. The goal is to foster mutual understanding regarding the direction of Thai industry development and to provide insightful data to assist in formulating governmental policy directions to enhance competitiveness and create new business opportunities in the future.

Additionally, this year marks a special opportunity to celebrate the 22nd anniversary of the Industrial Confidence Index (TISI), serving as a “economic and industrial compass” that reflects perspectives and conditions of the Thai manufacturing sector. The index has been successfully developed since 2003 under the leadership of Mr. Prabath Pothiwirakun, the 12th President of the Federation of Thai Industries. This index is a crucial milestone that aids both the government and private sectors in tracking changes, planning strategies, and preparing to tackle new challenges and opportunities effectively.

The FTI Outlook 2026 event represents an important step for FTI in driving the Thai economy amidst the changes of the new world through collaboration with the government, private sector, and experts from various fields. This initiative is expected to deepen the understanding of the economic and industrial directions of Thailand and support all sectors in adapting, enhancing competitive capacity, and collaboratively driving the Thai economy towards sustainable growth in 2026 and the years to come.

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Published by Corporate Communications Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)