แนวโน้มดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ เดือน ม.ค. ฟื้นตัว ส.อ.ท. เสนอรัฐต่อมาตรการ BOI–แก้ PM2.5Trends in Industry Confidence Index for January Recover, FTI Proposes Government Measures on BOI and Addressing PM2.5

On Wednesday, February 18, 2026, Mr. Nava Janthasurakhan, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with Dr. Wirach Chatrarong, FTI Board Member and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Division of FTI, unveiled the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey for January 2026, which stands at 88.7, an increase from 88.2 in December 2025.

This increase in the index reflects positive signals from various factors. The industrial sector has resumed normal production activities following the extended holidays during the New Year festival and has accelerated production to meet orders during the Chinese New Year festival, particularly in the processed food, clothing, and packaging industries. Furthermore, the rise in the number of tourists during the New Year festival and the government's tourism promotion measures, such as launching direct flight routes and organizing promotional activities in various areas, have continuously contributed to income distribution to regions and local entrepreneurs.

At the same time, the approval of seven additional investment promotion projects for data centers worth over 96 billion baht in the Eastern Special Development Zone (EEC) supports the growth of high technology industries and increases demand for electronic equipment. Additionally, pre-election activities also spur spending from both the public and private sectors, resulting in increased money circulation in the economy, such as the printing of campaign signs, ballots, and political party campaign activities. Moreover, the improving situation of security cooperation along the Thai-Cambodian border, following the ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, allows residents to return to their areas and facilitates the recovery of economic activities to operate normally.

However, in January, there were still challenging factors that need close monitoring. Government capital expenditure disbursement remains below target. Since the beginning of the fiscal year until January 23, 2026, the disbursement rate was 21%, lower than the target of 26% set for the end of January 2026, which may delay funds entering the economy. At the same time, the increase in social security contribution rates from 750 baht to 875 baht per month increases labor costs for entrepreneurs. In addition, delays in disbursing unemployment benefits continue to impact the income of over 208,404 unemployed individuals.

Furthermore, the high levels of PM2.5 particulate matter, primarily caused by open burning, especially in the Central and Northeast regions, still affect the tourism sector and public health. Meanwhile, the cessation of government spending stimulation measures contributes to a slowdown in domestic purchasing power, and the continuous strengthening of the baht exerts pressure on the income and competitiveness of exporters, particularly within the food, processed agriculture, and low-margin goods sectors.

From the survey of 1,300 entrepreneurs across 48 industrial groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in January 2026, it was found that the factors of concern among entrepreneurs have decreased, including domestic economic conditions at 60.2%, government policies at 39.2%, energy prices at 27.1%, access to credit at 24.3%, and interest rates on loans at 16.5%. In contrast, the concerns that increased among entrepreneurs include global economic conditions at 58.2% and exchange rates (especially from the perspective of exporters) at 52.4%.

Meanwhile, the three-month forecast index stands at 95.9, an increase from 95.7 in December 2025, supported by several key factors, such as the tourism season (High Season) during the Songkran festival, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption, particularly in food, beverages, and gift items. Additionally, the establishment of a new government is anticipated to help drive economic policies and expedite budget disbursement, positively impacting economic activities and enhancing overall confidence.

Nevertheless, there are still risk factors that require close observation, particularly concerns regarding geopolitical conflicts and trade wars, which may pressure the global trade environment and increase risks to the supply chain in the future.

Recommendations to the government  
1.  Propose that the government considers extending the support project through the Competitiveness Enhancement Fund of the Board of Investment (BOI) until the end of 2026 to help reduce costs and enhance competitiveness for entrepreneurs.
2.  Suggest strengthening law enforcement related to the management of PM2.5 particulate matter issues, particularly open burning, alongside fostering cooperation with neighboring countries to concretely address cross-border pollution issues.
3.  Request that the government expedite the allocation of budgets to promote knowledge in the application of AI technology among entrepreneurs, especially SMEs, to enhance business efficiency and reduce costs for the Thai industrial sector.

Furthermore, FTI has compiled data from the Industrial Confidence Index survey and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years, creating a Dashboard published on the Economic and Industrial Data Center website (iDS) of FTI to facilitate access to valuable information for entrepreneurs and the general public for business operations. The data can be accessed through the service at https://fti.or.th/ids.

FTI is committed to "Strengthening Thai Industries for a Stronger Thailand".

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Published by the Corporate Communication Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Information compiled by the Economic and Academic Division, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)