กกร. ห่วงวิกฤตพลังงานยืดเยื้อ ดันเงินเฟ้อพุ่ง หั่น GDP ปี 69 เหลือ 1.2–1.6%Joint Private Sector Committee Expresses Concerns Over Prolonged Energy Crisis, Driving Inflation Higher, and Reducing 2026 GDP Forecast to 1.2–1.6%

On Wednesday, April 1, 2026, Mr. Kiangkhai Tiranukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), presided over a press conference for the Joint Private Sector Committee of Three Organizations (JSC). Present at the conference were Mr. Thawatchai Sethachinda, Secretary-General of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and Mr. Phayong Srivanit, President of the Thai Bankers' Association, held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center.

The Thai economy is being impacted by the surge in energy prices, with the average inflation rate for 2026 projected to rise to between 2.0% and 3.0%, compared to the previous estimate of 0.2% - 0.7%. This is driven by the increase in retail fuel prices caused by market mechanisms, while vigilance is needed to monitor the effects of rising living costs on the economic drivers.

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East poses a risk of slowing the global economy, leading to reduced employment with high inflation (stagflation), as reflected by rising government bond yields. The US dollar is strengthening, while gold prices and risky assets are declining. A significant risk lies in the shortage of commodities such as oil, natural gas, and raw materials, which could cause a global production slowdown, impacting the entire supply chain and consumers.

As mentioned, the Thai economy has been affected by the surge in energy prices, with average inflation for 2026 expected to accelerate to between 2.0% and 3.0%, up from earlier projections of 0.2% to 0.7%. This is due to the higher retail fuel prices responding to market dynamics. Attention must be paid to the economic momentum affected by higher living costs, including consumption and private sector confidence, and potential adjustments to public expenditure that may require increased borrowing to stabilize the economy. The manufacturing sector is required to manage costs to maintain competitiveness, while exports may suffer from logistics disruptions. Additionally, the anticipated number of foreign tourists is estimated to be impacted by travel restrictions by approximately one million over the next three months. Consequently, Thailand's GDP growth for 2026 is forecasted to decrease to a range of 1.2% - 1.6%, down from the prior expectation of 1.6% - 2.0%. However, if events escalate, oil prices may exceed initial estimates, requiring close monitoring of the situation going forward.

During today's meeting, the JSC welcomed Dr. Kongkrapan Intarachai, Chief Executive Officer and President of PTT Public Company Limited, who provided insights into the energy situation. He emphasized the importance of ensuring energy security for the country, providing transparent information throughout the supply chain, and diversifying crude oil sourcing globally to replace Middle Eastern imports. The plan also includes enhancing refinery efficiency to handle various crude oils and operating above 100%, increasing diesel production from the normal 7%, and managing reserve volumes appropriately by rapidly distributing oil through all transportation channels, while continuously providing services at over 2,409 PTT Station locations.

Nonetheless, the JSC remains concerned about the protracted energy crisis, which continually pressures production costs, freight costs, and the living expenses of the populace. It is essential to 'connect the dots' — to link information and plan appropriately, while communicating transparently to ensure all sectors understand the situation uniformly. Given the impacts experienced, the JSC supports the government in hastily implementing targeted policies to mitigate effects on vulnerable groups, such as SMEs, while ensuring oversight to prevent oil hoarding or opportunistic price hikes. Moreover, measures should be introduced to alleviate freight costs, enabling businesses to maintain product prices. These measures will help ease the burden of production costs and enhance liquidity for enterprises, considering fiscal space and future investment capabilities of the nation, along with the impact on the country’s credit rating. Furthermore, Thailand should leverage this crisis as an opportunity to restructure the economy, enhancing competitiveness and increasing resilience against shocks, particularly regarding energy security and cost reduction, aligning with the Reinvent Thailand initiative.

             
Economic projections for 2026 by the JSC
2025
GDP 2.4
Exports 12.9
Inflation -0.1

2026 (as of Dec 2025 - Mar 2026)    
GDP 1.6 to 2.0
Exports -1.5 to -0.5
Inflation 0.2 to 0.7

2026 (as of Apr 2026)
GDP 1.2 to 1.6
Exports -1.5 to -0.5
Inflation 2.0 to 3.0

Source: NESDC, Ministry of Commerce, and estimates by JSC.
Key assumptions
(1) Average Brent crude oil price at approximately 88 USD/barrel in 2026 
(2) Domestic fuel prices are floating
(3) The lower bound of inflation at 2.0 assumes a halving of current excise tax on oil.

Additionally, the JSC meeting emphasized the importance of the new national power development plan (PDP 2026) from the Ministry of Energy, viewing it not just as an energy plan but as a core strategy to enhance the competitiveness of the nation parallel to the concrete energy transition. They suggested the expedited announcement of the electricity tariff structure for 2026-2027, reflecting the actual costs, reforming the electricity sector towards a free market, ensuring fair access to the grid, and aligning plans with greenhouse gas emission reduction goals (NDC 3.0) to build confidence and attract investments. Also, there should be systematic promotion of renewable energy usage, enhancement of clean energy standards, and support financial instruments to assist businesses and SMEs in adapting, leveraging cooperation from all sectors through the establishment of a Joint Public-Private Energy Committee to strategically drive and unlock various restrictions so that the PDP 2026 meets objectives related to security, sustainability, and long-term competitiveness.