ส.อ.ท. เผยดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ ลดลงต่อเนื่อง หลังต้นทุนพลังงาน–วัตถุดิบพุ่งสูงFTI Reports Continuous Decline in Industrial Confidence Index Due to Rising Energy and Raw Material Costs

Ms. Pimjai Leeissaranukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with Mr. Panithan Pawarolaarwittaya, Secretary-General of FTI, jointly announced the results of the industrial confidence index survey for May 2026, which stands at 84.7, a decrease from 85.3 in April 2026.

The decline in the index is pressured by the manufacturing sector, which shows signs of continued slowdown, particularly in industries that have not benefited from the expansion of exports and increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Meanwhile, imports from abroad are on the rise, especially consumer goods such as cosmetics, jewelry, and furniture.

Additionally, rising production costs have led to an upward trend in inflation, affecting consumers' purchasing power and putting pressure on profit margins for entrepreneurs.

At the same time, the labor shortage in the construction, agricultural, and manufacturing sectors remains a significant obstacle to business operations, resulting in reduced production capacity or delays in the manufacturing process. Furthermore, risks associated with the tension in the Strait of Hormuz may impact the energy supply chain and lead to shortages of critical raw materials such as naphtha and chemical fertilizers, which are related to several industries, including plastics, packaging, petrochemicals, and processed agriculture. Energy prices that remain high also contribute to transportation costs.

However, in May 2026, the industrial sector received support due to ongoing demand for electronic products that has been expanding alongside the growth of digital technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI), positively impacting the export of electronic components, electrical circuit boards, and semiconductors.

Simultaneously, investments in the electronics industry and data centers continue to expand, stimulating demand in related supply chains such as Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) and electronic components.

Moreover, government measures have been beneficial to the industrial sector, with the Cabinet approving measures to temporarily relax the calculation of construction cost compensation (K costs) to mitigate the impact of rising construction material costs on government contractors, alongside measures to extend the grace period for the Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) for housing loans, which supports the recovery of the real estate sector and stimulates domestic demand for construction materials.

From a survey of 1,347 entrepreneurs covering 48 industrial groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in May 2026, it was found that the concerns of entrepreneurs have increased regarding domestic economic conditions at 75.7% and access to credit at 34.3%. In contrast, concerns have decreased regarding energy prices at 75.5%, the global economy at 75.7%, exchange rates (especially from the exporters' perspective) at 41.0%, government policies at 37.8%, and loan interest rates at 32.9%.

The industrial confidence index forecast for the next three months is at 91.8, a decrease from 92.8 in April 2026, pressured by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, particularly the cessation of negotiations between Iran and the United States, which raises concerns about the stability of the energy supply chain, as well as the petrochemical and chemical fertilizer industries. Additionally, inflation is expected to rise approximately 3-4% due to production cost pressures gradually passed on to the prices of goods and services.

However, the industrial sector also benefits from government economic stimulus measures under the royal decree empowering the Ministry of Finance to borrow 400 billion baht, of which 200 billion baht is allocated for the “Thai Help Thai Plus” project and another 200 billion baht for energy restructuring, which is expected to stimulate economic growth (GDP) by approximately 0.6-0.8% and support economic and industrial activities going forward.

Recommendations to the government  
1.  Propose that the government consider extending the oil subsidy measures for the transport sector to mitigate the impact of energy prices, reduce the production sector's cost burden, and help slow inflation and living costs for the public. 
2.  Propose that the government expedite efforts to enhance access to funding sources for SMEs through Supply Chain Financing mechanisms in the PromptBIZ project along with incentives for large companies to participate in the “Big Brother Helps Little Brother” project to create opportunities for SMEs to access credit within the supply chain. 
3.  Propose that the government accelerate the feasibility study of introducing Small Modular Reactor (SMR) nuclear power technology as one of Thailand's long-term alternative energy sources to enhance energy security and support the country's greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The FTI has compiled the results of the industrial confidence index survey and economic and industrial indicators from the past three years into a Dashboard published on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website to facilitate entrepreneurs and the public in accessing information for business use, which can be accessed at https://fti.or.th/ids

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Published by the Corporate Communications Department of the Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Data compiled by the Economic and Academic Department of the Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)